Cultural adjustments with Terrorism- some unconventional ideas?

Pakistan has just been through the havoc of floods and has to mange the aftermath of floods. Although the direct impact of flood has been borne by the victims, the indirect effect of the losses of crops, cattle, infrastructure etc would have to be borne by every body. Food shortage and inflation is already calling on us. In Pakistan, already one in four used to be starving under below the poverty line of minimum physical nutritional requirements. What will happen in the aftermath is any body’s guess.

Earthquake, terrorism and now these floods; some people say, it is Azab (God’s curse). Nothing would be crueler than this kind of characterization. Most of the sufferers are poor people, who have no share in the wrong doings of our society, and the rich and the powerful. Most natural calamities are defendable against to quite a degree. Elsewhere people have leant building earth quake safe buildings and structures which greatly reduce the damage and impact, if not eliminate altogether. There are reasonable protections against floods like dykes and dams. We either did not build dykes or those were not adequately high or strong enough or were not in good maintenance.

Even after such severe floods, there are people who say there is no excess water to be stored. Elsewhere, people have built dams to prevent or reduce the intensity of floods and to store water to fight drought. They are against Kalabagh dam and not against other dams such as Bhasha. KP has some reason to oppose it, but why Sindh. Some people suggest that expediency demands that the issue of Kalabagh dam be not touched lest it may ignite opposition to other dams as well. But the fact remains, that we are not willing to see the light of the day, even after even probably God tried to convince us of the merit of the case through sending these floods. It has been estimated that 45 MAF of excess water has flown in these floods, which is more than the combined storage capacity of all dams, existing and future ones including the,”dreaded Kalabagh dam”. The only reason the proponents of Kalabagh dam raise its issue is that it can be built the earliest and fastest as all planning work on it has been completed. We can start getting cheap hydro power in a matter of five years, while in other cases it may take twice longer.

Terrorist have not spared their Muslim brothers during or after these floods. Are they really Muslims? They are but they are misguided mufsideen. Who were Kharjis and what they did. This is not difficult to identify this old strain in Muslim society. They attacked Data Darbar earlier and now yesterday they again struck at Abdullah Shah Ghazi’s shrine and have accepted responsibility. Some or most fundamentalist parties and persons blame foreigners including the US for these atrocities, even after their admission. It means that TTP is directed by the US and India and Israel. They would not agree drawing these conclusions. There cannot be more thankless and unimaginative people than us to blame America for this.

There may not be any compromise with the terrorists but there can be a compromise with their front men and protagonists who are not directly involved but have considerable sympathy with the terrorists and their Jihad. Most fundamentalists avoid openly condemning terrorists may be due to the fear and more probably because of a common theme that the Pakistani state is almost a Darulkufr and it should be destroyed in its present form to be replaced by an Islamic system of their type where women are flogged and daughters kept away from schools. We may have to think about their ideology and thought process. Most poor people and by definition the majority of Pakistan seems to be in their favor-the fundamentalist clergy. Terrorism is expanding, it is not abated. Even if they are in not such a majority, as it may appear apparently, they are in significant number. Some accommodation has to be sought with them. Democratic conduct also requires that the liberals show some sensitivity to their version of ideology. This is not enough to say that we are all Muslims. The differences in approaches and understandings are great.

Surely some mid-ground can be found. The background talks that are going on with some of the good terrorists or our own terrorists should be accompanied by some negotiations on philosophical and ideological issues with their front men. Some cultural adjustments would have to be made. Flagrant demonstration of flesh business by pimpic media must end. Democracy does not, at least the stage we are in, does not need, that kind of freedom. Many other flagrant demonstrations of western culture may have to be suitably curtailed. It is often speculated that documentary and media evidence of objectionable materials and other unnecessary carnal exhibitionism is used by the terrorist organizations in their training and inculcation?

One may argue and perhaps quite justifiably that it may be downward slippery ride to the abyss. For the likes of fundamentalists and terrorists we are facing, even Saudi cultural restrictions are not enough. On the other hand Muslim liberalism may have to also define as to where culture stops and flesh business begins. At this moment, it is also a slippery ride into the western permissiveness of 1960s.

Certainly, this government has to tackle many problems, many being simply inherited. All people and parties should be cooperative and show some compassion and sympathy than simple and cruel opposition, criticism and condemnations.

HEC;Financial difficulties of the Universities

Reportedly University Vice Chancellors have threatened to resign over their budgetary difficulties.HEC's under which universities operate, had its budgets phenomenally increased during Musharraf regime.In pursuit of elitist agenda , a crash program was launched to elevate the level of higher(university) education and Science & Technology.The assumption was that by throwing money at something , one improves its quality.All kinds of fancy programs were launched and money was wasted. Some of the programs like building new universities with foreign faculty simply could not take off at all , while other continued with varying levels of output,efficiency and achievements.It was widely accepted that a lot of money was wasted under egotistical and whimsical programs without stake -holders support and objective bases and criteria.

We do not want to go into the details .Suffice is to say that most of those programs are not sustainable and would have to be trimmed or curtailed altogether.Priority has to return to the primary and secondary education.Besides,in the aftermath of floods , a lot of humanitarian rehabilitation of flood victims have to be done.However, there would be practical issues in curtailing programs for which third party contracts have been entered into or the Phd students that have been sent abroad.Such cases would have to be sorted out on a case-to-case basis.Prime-minister has reportedly formed a committee to sort out the issue . HEC and its subsidiary institutions have to return to real life situation and condition away from the aberrations of the past.Vice Chancellors are mature and experienced people and should be amenable to reasonable adjustments.It is not easy and even not advisable to take sharp turns,while contractual obligations should be met.

The need of the hour is that apart from ending frivolous programs , universities should launch programs towards enhancing their incomes and budgetary self reliance. I would not recommend enhancing fees to unaffordable levels,but would make a case of increasing subsidiary earnings through contract research ,endowment funds and fee and rentals.At least some(10-20%) of the budget should be earned through contract research.We have discussed this issue in detail elsewhere.

Pakistan Meteorological Department being a Ministry of Defence entity ?

It may surprise many,but it is true that Pakistan Meterological Department(PMD) is part of the Ministry of Defence.What direct relevance is there of weather with matters of war and peace should be known to those who put that department where it is now.Perhaps nowhere in the World is this department associated with the military or Defence except for antiquated regimes like North Korea and Mayanmar.In 19th century century days of Clausewitz ,weather data may have a had strategic value requiring security and secrecy.Today in the age of satellites and international weather modelling ,there is hardly any notion of sensitivity about this data.

But why should one bother about where a department is located hierarchically, so long such an association does not cause any problem in its functioning ,output and liaison with the users.There is an implication and a serious one.Due to being a MoD installation,there has always been an aura of secrecy about it. PMD has been found wanting in disseminating the data with the required facility and readiness.There is always some hesitation and number of questions asked and forms to be filled to get simple meteorological data which everywhere is available abundantly on the net without charge.Now bureaucracy has discovered another convenient device of hiding behind user charges and have started charging discouragingly high commercial charges for the data.It may be awkward to call the data to be sensitive and easy to deny and discourage access through demanding payments.And then making payments is not easy.You have to get an account number from the department,go to the State Bank of Pakistan ,make the payment,repeat the process if there is some discrepancy and the cycle goes on.Similarly FBS does with its data.They hardly earn any money and contribute towards financial sustainability,but manage to discourage data use and development.And in case of PMD,save the so called," sensitive' data.The consequence is that many scientific,economic and environmental applications that could have been developed and published could not be done. A number of which I can readily cite.Most EIA applications involving air pollution such as of power plants cannot be done because of the data restrictions.Expensive software like AERMOD has been made free by other countries,but for the ready availability of data.Flood modelling and water inundation cannot be made online because of restrictions on GIS.A lot of economic analysis is not undertaken on various regions of the country because CENSUS data is not made available in the required format or even made available online.A lot of flood information and analysis and forecast of flood flows could have been made available to the public in the form of flood maps,but for such restrictions esp on GIS.

In the case of PMD and its role in flood forecasting and organisational interfacing with the user departments,the jury is still to be out.The net result has been , a lack of coordination among the relevant organisations.Did PMD's special status a MoD entity prevent or discourage readily interacting directly with other departments or it had to go via?these questions would be and should be reviewed at the earliest opportunity.In any case PMDs association with the MoD and its secretive behavior is an anachronism which must change.It should be reorganized along open lines and appended to Ministry of Science and Technology or MINFAL .PMD itself should not have too much of a say in it, as they may not be objective about it due to the real estate advantages that come with MoD affiliation.

And lastly appending civilian institution to defence sector has many disadvantages,the most important being the budgetary issues.Defence expenditure unnecessarily becomes high and bulky reflecting poorly in political terms inviting undeserved criticism and hostility.Genuine requirements of Defence sector are too many and do not justify further agglomeration.

Ten Commandments for the government in the aftermath of Floods

There are widespread demands of improving governance performance. It appears that some major policy steps and reforms package may have to be launched courageously to assuage concerns in this respect.All policy reforms of any significance carry risks of annoying and even antagonizing some sector or group.Those risks have to be taken.The risks in not taking the measures and appear to be doing something meaningful are probably more .

These are my humble submissions to the Government of Pakistan , especially in the aftermath of the floods,which would have been required to be implemented even before the floods.The list could have been longer,but has been kept brief.More will follow in this series:

0)The most sacrosanct principle and objective should be to survive and let the democratic government to complete its term for the first time in the history of Pakistan..Fighting for it in itself is a respectable motto.Any conspiracy against a Sindh leadership party would be injurious to national fabric and unity.

00)Encourage Americans to depart from Afghanistan as an only peaceful ending to terrorism in due course,despite possible prodding for the opposite from certain quarters, to keep the US in.These are the people who want to have cake and eat it too.Do not listen to them.Keep trying for a Marshal Plan for Afghanistan and Pakistan.Involve Afghans in the process.There should be no hurry for a break-through with India.Let them wait for Nawaz Sharif.

1)Maintain and pursue the politics of inclusion,reconciliation and consensus ,taking the partners along. Pursue the same within as well.

2)Do not borrow unnecessary confrontation from the powerful institutions.

3)Revive local governments( setting an example in Sindh),even if with lesser powers and adjustments for LGs , preferably with the consensus of stake-holders , and encourage provincial governments elsewhere to do the same.

4)Tax(on Income) the agricultural landlords holding 100 acres or more.

5)Launch some significant initiative on Land Reforms and Land Distribution.Introduce land co-operative schemes.

6)Introduce and pursue jobs creating economic policies supporting SMEs and micro enterprises.Large Industrial sector has very little room for growth in the current national and international trade and competition regime,as has also been indicated by recent data.

7)Do not fall into the trap of extractive taxation policies and so called documentation.However do barely enough to barely satisfy IMF boys.These policies would scuttle growth and job creation especially among the poor.

8)Revive Ration Card scheme of the 1960s(free or cheap ration) for flood victims and for the others for cheap rates from the utility stores.

9)Introduce Aqua fishery(cage) for flood areas and coastal areas of Sindh and Balochistan.

10)Pay attention to Energy Sector:fast track Thar Coal with Chinese with a deal of 5000 MW;solve hydro royalty issue of KP ala Indian model of 12% free electricity.

11)Bring meaningful reforms in the exploitative Banking sector,bringing lending interest rates and banks margins down , and balance the lopsided free for all brought in by Musharraf and his minions.No wonder all kinds of banks have been coming in for a small economy seeing huge profits.

List of Blogs

A. Introduction

B. FLOODS

• Flood relief:Solar Disinfection of Water
• Flood Relief:clean drinking water and PCSIR products
• Flood mitigation: Planning and community participation
• Floods;lack of a communication protocol
• Review of FFC and Flood Management System
• Flood dividends
• Floods and the mighty Indus
• Flood Compensation
• Risk Management: floods and businesses
• Flood Forecasting and Management System in Pakistan
• Flood Management & Map Phobia in Pakistan
• Floods forecasts and Emergency preparedness
• Flood victims: Emergency support vs sustainability
• Floods: Emergency Shelter and Toilets (continued)
• Floods: Emergency Shelters and toilets concept and costs
• Floods and Dams: the right time for discourse and debate
• Floods: water accord and discord in Pakistan
• Floods: irrigation system, abiana and income tax on agricultural incomes?
• Inadequate and delayed relief assistance and the potential for anarchy and destabilisation

C. LAND REFORMS

• Land and Housing Reforms: Innovations and opportunities due to the floods.
• Land (zar, zameen and zan) is one of the THREE.
• Is Land Reform off the Menu?
• Afghan Mineral Resources for Regional Development.
• Land Ownership and Utilization in Pakistan
• Land Reforms: Restructuring Agriculture and Political Power
• Balochistan; Insurgency and Land Reform

D. EDUCATION AND RESEARCH

• University Research: Water & Environment
• University Research: the Floods
• University Research IX :Conclusion
• University Research X: the way forward
• University Research VIII: the case of HEJ and PCSIR
• University Research VII: the antithesis
• University Reseach VI; Agriculture
• University Research V: the incubators
• University Research IV:Bio-sciences
• What an engineering university should be doing at a minimum

• University Research III: Ultimately Public Sector Universities would have to earn some money

• University Research:relevance ,cost-effectiveness and not elitism

• University Research II: Merger of Ministries of Edu and Science

E. POLITICS AND GOVERNANCE

• The need and rationale for a Water Policy
• Pakistan Drinking Water Policy
• Mr. President (Musharraf) : What you should be doing?
• Book Review/Comment:Memories of a soldier; 1947, before, during , after
• Dichotomy of Political Power: Persecution or Performance and Capability?
• Why Pakistan Railways is collapsing?
• Floods and the Local Governments

F. CASE OF THE POOR

• Is beggary a menace to be curtailed?
• Insuring the poor.

G. FOOD AND FISHERIES IN THE CONTEXT OF FLOODS

• Fishery cage aquaculture for sustainable Livelihood for the poor,landless and flood victims

• Community based fisheries management
• Floods Recovery: land reform, water rights, in-land fishery and white revolution

H. Appendix

· Pakistan's Development and Energy Challenges: Two new books by Akhtar Ali.

• New Book: Pakistan's Development Challenges: federalism, security and governance.

Managing Pakistan in the aftermath of the floods

Floods have devastated Pakistan directly and indirectly.Nealy one-fifth of people and area have been affected.Human, cattle,crops,homes,schools and infrastructure and what not have been destroyed.Damage and loss assessment is yet to be completed,however,there are varying estimates ranging from 11 to 45 billion US dollars.As it is Pakistan was reeling from the affects of two or more successively bad years due to international recession,oil price hike and political transition.Floods have worsened the situation further.The initial psychological and physical shock was so much that some people even doubted that Pakistan would be able to survive at all.These doubts are not new and the flood shocks have even exacerbated those.

Floods visit every community where there is a river.For centuries of human experience and history,floods have been considered a blessing which brought a new round of fertility.There used to be no fertilizers ,floods brought fertile soil along and spread it on the shore.The problem is due to the burgeoning population.In the last sixty years alone,Pakistan's population has increased manifold,mounting pressure on both rural and urban land and areas.

The intensity of floods was colossal.According to initial estimates,45 MAF(million acre feet) of water gushed out in a few days,as opposed to normal average flow of 100 MAF in one full year.This was certainly the most severe flood in the history of the land of this country.

Admittedly,floods devastation could have been much lesser,had we been a little more organised and a little less corrupt and inefficient.What a forlorn hope.Most technology to forecast floods and deal with it exists in the country but utilized with wanting efficiency.Investments in Dykes and Levees have been made over the years,but got weakened and dilapidated due to poor maintenance as a result of corruption of the irrigation department.On e of the most corrupt in a country which has the "honour" of being listed as one of the most corrupt countries of the world.Sindh has suffered much more due to this corrupt officialdom.In Sindh,doctors and teachers donot go to their workplaces and draw salaries.It is ghost schools and health facilities all over. Nationalists in Sindh would have pushed all the fault to Pakistan and its federal (punjab) government ,had Sindh not been ruling in the center and elsewhere.A separatist movement would have been launched.Thanks to the present democratic set-up.This is another reason,that many patriotic and sincere Pakistanis argue and wish that the current political dispensation should be allowed to continue and complete its full term,which it has legitimately earned,despited the purported faults and issues.Sky is not falling,it would have fallen in their absence of those who pronounced "Pakistan Khape" in a situation when they had all the power and potential to play foul.

It is not easy to run this country in these circumstances.Perhaps those who are destablising the system in the hope of coming to power through back doors donot quote appreciate it.So is the power of power.It is a mix motley crowd consisting of naive and innocent middle class professionals clamoring for reform and revolution and a less mature media led by inadequately informed anchors,some of whom clearly running their personal vendetta.In the background there always are undemocratic forces,both within and outside the establishment.The establishment established long ago by the so called," gang of four', led and left by the Governor Ghulam Mohammad.Younger people would'nt know and appreciate what I mean.

Government of the day has great responsibility to discharge despite onerous and mounting problems.For its part,it should maintain its politics of consensus despite problems and difficulties. Opposition has a difficult role and task to perform to which it has not been quite used to and for which there has not been a tradition.To maintain and support the present set up without letting them winning the next election.It is indeed a tight rope, and the chances and incentives and detractor too many to cause imbalance and a fall.Mr.Nawaz Sharif has an opportunity to live for history and not for power.He has done well uptill now and should continue doing so.He would earn more honour and respect without power than with it.He has already done so.

Community based fisheries management

Fish consumption in Pakistan is one of the lowest in the world i.e.1-2 kg per capita per year bringing down nutrition levels among people to one of the lowest also.This is not a habit issue,which at best is a chicken-egg problem.This is despite , a 1000 km+ coastline and four rivers and thousands of miles of canal network.There is a tremendous potential in the sector to contribute to the livelihood of the poor , if not for boosting exports which any case robs the poor of its potential food that may be available otherwise.

Most of the coastal fishery is under open access system which is normally exploitative maximising output and profits without any regards for resource conservation,sustainability and stewardship,although there are some regulations that provide for the former with a varying level of effectiveness.If a resource is owned by a community ,it may forego consumption or injurious exploitation ,for the sake of tomorrows consumption and needs.In open access system ,it is generally free for all and no such incentives for resource conservation and stewardship or management exist ,except for some labelling systems that are in a stage of infancy.

Similar is the situation for inland fisheries resources and water bodies which are contracted out by WAPDA and provincial governments as per their domain and ownership.Except for some limited revenue,the characteristics of contractorship are the same as in the open access system.Even the puprete and potential revenues are siphone off by the corrupt bureaucracy and their politically influencial patrons.

Community base fisheries management has emerged as a viable alternative management system, although promoted more for environmental reasons than any thing else.Our focus here is to utilise this approach towards the following social and economic objectives:

1) to broaden the claim and stewardship of the poor and the landless on the resurces.

2)to dilute feudal structures and reduce dependence of the people on it.

3)to increase nutrition and income of the rural poor.

4)To increase output,efficiency,economics and resource conservation.

5)and for the time being ,contribute to the revival of rural economies after the flood disaster,with which we have dealt with in a sperate article.

However,there is a great risk in all community based systems to be hijacked by feudal vested interest through proxy and background manipulations and machinations.The very purpose of broader social and economic upliftment is gone.Commercial and administrative systems have been and are an improvement of the classical and traditional master-client system of landed interests which try to reemerge under new names of community organisations.Policy designers have to be watchful.

The opportunities of improvement are many.Small steps with continuous improvement and innovations at a broad scale in most parts of the economy can add up to bring about a major impact on the economy and well-breing of the people.The tragedy is that people seem to be losing hope and confidence that things would work out.They wait and dream and hope for a great tumultuous type of change delivered by a Messiah whose time is either gone or has yet to come.Some phony messiahs are touting themselves as the real ones. are waiting for an Islamic system , and their other brothers want to fast track the same through their suicide attacks.Some nihilists are looking forward to total destruction, so that a new order emerges from its debris.There used to be communists of the yesteryears,whose dreams were overrun by the collapse of the Soviet system.Still possibly ,the only real communists are found in Pakistan and India.Fast growth phenomenon of fascism was defeated at the alter of misconduct of Adolf Hitler,and the new proponents of it in the form of military dictators of ours have not been able to offer a panacea,except to offer themselves again and again.So there is no panacea ,magic or secret recipe for social and economic development.It comes about piecemeal,in small steps but through a continuous and sustained effort.

In Pakistan,we have been talking about various initiatives for a long time .No sizable initiative after Poultry Scheme has not been implemented.All that is done is that some demonstration projects are launched under foreign aid and through foreign consultants,without conviction or commitment.There is no follow-up and no policy and action for launching such schemes and initiatives.There is abundance of doubting thomases and skeptics for whom nothing is possible or feasible,except the continuation of their perks and benefits.On the other hands so many challenges and demands on newly elected political leaders are created that they are paralyzed in fire-fighting and so much impatience is shown as to create despondency,while military rule is tolerated for long times.People of Pakistan must understand these machinations and put their weight behind democratic political order.On the other hand,political parties should induct technicians and experts,who should remain busy in their development work without bothering about the daily political ups and downs.It is only then that a legitimate and sustainable development and improvement cycle would come into full gear.

Floods Recovery:land reform,water rights,in-land fishery and white revolution

We should be coming out of floods soon,as at least in Punjab people have started returning home to start planting for the next crop.In Sindh also,people are expected to start returning.Flood victims will have to be rehabilitated ,as they have lost almost every thing;houses,cattle,food stock,plantation, crop etc.It is an extremely difficult task.Most of the affectees are small farmers and the landless poor,operating in the Kachcha areas.Next crop is to come in six months, and the affectees have to eat and survive in this period beside providing inputs to produce their livelihood.

In this article, I would like to discuss some of the options and approaches that could produce some results in near term,although may take some time,and may not be implementable immediately.However,as I have pointed out elsewhere,government(s) can utilise this calamity as an opportunity to launch some fundamental reforms in the economy and agricultural sector in Pakistan.

Let me first of all and at the first opportunity explain what is meant by "white revolution", as some readers may be concerned and nervous over the word revolution.White revolution is a term referring to the prospect and potential of very high increase in milk production in our country.For almost a decade , we are talking about the white revolution by launching innovative development and assisting programmes in the live stock sector.With more than 200,000 cattle having been lost in the floods,the dream of such a revolution seem to have receded further into

the oblivion.However, a more distributive and broad based programme could be launched by providing a pair of cattle under some loan scheme,along with a small piece of land.By some magic ,if government manages to get the money and credit from abroad and lends it to small farmer, where does the land come from.

I have discussed elsewhere the possibilities of launching land reforms,in a limited fashion,which may be politically feasible.I would not elaborate it over here,except that the Government(s) can speed up and rather broaden the land distribution programme that had been in the pipeline in Sindh,before the floods.Same can be done at much broader and wider scale in Balochistan,where only 5-6% of the countries population lives on almost 50% land mass of the country i.e., one million households vs 25 million households elsewhere.I have similarly argued for water rights for the landless from all the future irrigation network expansion of the future, and further increase in irrigation water availability.

Let us here focus on the flood water.Many water bodies in the country and especially in Sindh and Balochistan ,which had become almost extinct due to lack of water, should have been revived and rehabilitated by the excess flood water.In lower Punjab,farmers are reportedly offering higher bids for leases of these water bodies with their enhanced fishery potential.New areas with deeper land where inundation has been very high could possibly converted to new water bodies.In many countries like Bangladesh, Peru and Brazil etc aquatic fishery projects have been launched successfully in the flood plains under community based systems.

Traditionally in-land water bodies are auctioned and given out on annual contracts to often rich and well-connected contractors who try to maximize their fish catch , small artisanal fishermen from their subsistence activities.As it happens conventionally in Pakistan, a lot of money and income goes into the pockets of those awarding the contracts and their patrons.Very little income is received by the government.Provincial governments should consider awarding communal or cooperative ownership or fishing rights to nearby and traditional communities along with assistance and extension providing hatcheries and feed supplies under some credit schemes.New water bodies may be created by trapping the flood water and connecting it with river through channels.In Haiti a similar project has been launched under Clinton Global initiative,about which a film has been shown recently on CNN.A similar project could be launched in Sindh and elsewhere in the country.Through such innovative schemes and projects,one could mitigate and alleviate the disastrous consequences of floods to our people and the economy.However we must move fast, and move optimistically in a positive way,looking for wisdom and approaches from whatever directions these may be be available.Fortunately ,world today is a global village and technology and wisdom is available to meet the challenges.World community appears to be quite eager to help,if we are eager to help ourselves.

Flood Relief:clean drinking water and PCSIR products

Water gets contaminated in the flooded environment.And the victims are usually out of their homes without any pots and stoves and fuel to be able to boil their water.Disaster aid agencies and NGOs are often asking for donations of water cleaning kits that are imported usually and its supply uncertain.There are several solutions that may be implemented by the agencies:

Household bleach is one of the best disinfectant,approved by such donor agencies as DFID.A few drops per liter and 30 minutes waiting time does an excellent job.NGOs and volunteers should make these supplies available to the flood victims and do some demo and ax plaining.This practice can even be adopted as a routine as well

Another good disinfectant,quite effective and safe,was developed by our PCSIR. It was a pouch containing sand and silver halide.All one was require to do was to put such a pouch in ones water pot or filter ,and drink safe water out of the tap.the product was developed probably in late 80's and was quite visible.Several of my friends and relatives did use it for quite some years when I was weaned on mineral water which i have stopped and have returned to the boiled water at my home.I wonder what happened to the PCSIR product.It is no more visible.It could have proved very handy for the flood victims.Why was it discontinued? May be due to lack of enough demand or having been proved undesirable for some scientific reason.Only PCSIR can tell ? We would like to listen if they are listening us.

Five Reverse Osmosis(RO) plants and three ultra-filtration plants designed and manufactured by EME Karachi garrison of Pakistan Army were dispatched today to various locations in Sindh.Ultra-filtration plants have a capacity of 25,000 liters a day and cost Rs.50,000/- per,while R.O.plants have a capacity of12000 liters a day and a price tag of Rs. 2.5 million.Naturally ROs are quite expensive as the water quality is almost mineral water irrespective of the input quality.We have earlier discussed the case of procuring such plants on rent or lease or outright purchase of even used plants.Some areas permanently require ROs or ultra-filtration plants where these can be dispatched to after the emergency.It is a good idea on the part of EME of Pak Army to have engaged in this kind of endeavor which would have multiple benefits.

The need and rationale for a Water Policy

One may decry the need of a policy and argue that there is already a defacto policy and dispersed over many documents and rules.And the sophists may argue that our policy is not to have a policy.We want to be free of constraints and be dynamic.Although policies often are vague and broadly drafted affirmation of principles and targets and often remain unimplemented,yet in some areas policy affirmations and determinations are vitally required,especially where many agencies and sectors may be involved.We have seen how power policy has attracted IPP investment and Export policies have promoted and expanded exports.Policy makes decision making easy on the part of the bureaucracy and saves time and effort of the stake-holders in sorting out issues.

We do not have a water policy,although we do have elements and components of water policy;an elaborate drinking water policy has been prepared;there is WAPDA's water vision 2025,which also goes by Planning Commissions water vision,which is essentially a WAPDA's strategic Plan outlining its investment pro-gramme and strategy over the period.These are parts of a potential water policy but not a policy in itself.A policy is a holistic document,enunciating principles,objectives,goals and targets,resolves and intermediates cross sectoral issues,lays out priorities and may even provide guidance to working rules.

It would be relevant here to point out that some of our flood management problems are due to the non-availability of a policy document;the issue of coordination between PMD,FFC and WAPDA on operation of the dams;the fixing of priorities,storage vs hazard and human life.An archaic Flood Manual could not possibly resolve the question in time.Thus there is a need of an integrated policy drawing upon existing framework,improving upon it and gather support around it.Water is an important issue,especially when it is getting scarce requiring prioritisation and choices to be made.There are many issues which remain to be straightened such as royalties and user charges,water allocation among various user sector,investment schemes ,strategies and targets,around which much needed action is to take place.Although,one may like to add a caveat here that in the presence of water sector reports of the lending agencies such as ADB and World Bank,what is the need of a policy.Policy without the backing of money has no teeth.They have the money and teeth as well.This was a mere caveat.A nation of 160-180 million people needs much more.

Our neighboring country India introduced a Water Policy as early as in 1987 and revised and updated it in 2002.Our Ministry of Water and Power should make an immediate beginning in this respect.The honorable minister will get a feather in his cap ,as well as the government. After all it is a highly competitive political and democratic environment wherein achievements are to be made and demonstrated as well.The immediate contribution of a political government is enunciation of policy.Implementation keeps following.Even after 62 years of our national existence,there are still new horizons and virgin territories.

Review of FFC and Flood Management System

In Pakistan floods are no novelty.A total of 12 floods came between 1947 and 1995,giving an average intermission period of 4-5 years.This ,however,is an average;it can come again in the next one or two years or in more than fiver years,but surely it will.It is important that we identify mistakes and shortcomings and take steps that these are not repeated again.Not only that,but potential future mistakes are avoided as well.

PMD reportedly did make a flood forecast early in June.But how credible these were?Apparently these were credible enough to lead into what one may be apt to call strategic pre-view.But does PMD system issues a formal probabilistic data,and the relevant agencies give credence to it and the formal follow up SOPs are tied to PMD ,is not known.A clear indicator is that WAPDA did not start emptying its dams ahead of time,so as to make room for the coming flood water.Every body appears to have played safe to save his skin,and unsaved the system as a result.There are two remedies to it;formal system and protocols dealing with quantified uncertainty and operational coordination.Both have been lacking.Federal Flood Commission thinks that it is a scientific body only and has no extra powers of coordination, a claim that we would examine in the light of statutory and written role a bit later.

All of this indicates the need for a formal and independent third party review,to inter alia,include the following aspects;

1.Review of the PMD forecast system,as to how scientific and structured it is.How much of possible traditional safe playing is involved.Is there a formal stochastic procedure available to deal with the uncertainty e.g.99%,95%,90% or just 50-50 probabilities based predictions.

2.How good ,inclusive and extensive is FFCs(Federal Flood Commission ) working. How simplistic or sophisticated is the so-called computer modelling;what are its variables;what is the scope of its output, quality,frequency and time-liness;does it limit itself to barrages only or goes down up to village levels;does it includes dykes and structures and their level and condition of repair;does it include topographical details at the required map scale to be able to generate forecasts for village inundations dynamically.Do they produce flood maps regularly and dynamically?Has adequately detailed flood zoning been done and tied to flood scenarios?Most probably their system does static analysis and generates broad macro outputs of limited value in flood management,otherwise eleventh hour and totally improvised management by local administration would not have been there.

3.Where is the flood manual?It was not visible at all.Is it adequate?when was the last time it was updated?How frequently it was used? what were the problems using it?

4.NDMA/PDMAs have apparently only a role in relief assistance and fire fighting,which it reportedly did with the assistance of Pakistan Army and Navy.NDMA. was established in the wake of Earthquake of 1995?.It has not been given much of a mandate and role in Flood Management.Every body including provincial governments believed that FFc is responsible for flood coordination and management,which FFC denies that it has such responsibility.FFC says it is only a scientific body.In that case it may be advisable that NDMA be given the responsibility of flood management and coordination,both in terms of planning and execution,while FFC continues to perform its purely technical functions it is capable of.

5.Consideration may be given to organize NDMA on the lines of FEMA(Federal Emergency Management Agency) of the USA.More centrist outlook may have to be adopted than the delay prone federalist structures in such emergency situations.There is certainly a major role of provincial and local governments in relief operations.However,the executive authority of emergency management may not be diluted by federal principles for the benefit of constituents themselves.